Healthy Skepticism Library item: 7833

Warning: This library includes all items relevant to health product marketing that we are aware of regardless of quality. Often we do not agree with all or part of the contents.

Publication type: Journal Article

Shah ND.
Use of trend data on medication use volume in the forecasting process
ASHP Midyear Clinical Meeting 2001 Dec; 36:

Abstract:

Prescription drug expenditures have increased rapidly over the last 5 yr. Increasing demand for prescription drugs is adding to health care costs and pressuring health system managers to better forecast drug expenditures. Forecasting expenditures is a difficult process and includes predicting price inflation, increases in utilization, and predicting prescribing patterns. Thus, it is important to understand the various trends that affect the forecast of medication expenditures. These trends can be divided into 4 major components. They include consumer trends, prescriber trends, payor trends, and industry trends. Understanding these trends as they apply to a specific organization would enable better forecasting of drug expenditures. Learning objectives: 1. Describe specific consumer trends that affect the forecasting drug expenditures. 2. Understand the provider and payor trends that affect drug expenditures. 3. Understand the industry trends that affect the forecasting of drug expenditures. Self-assessment questions: True or False: 1. The most important factor in forecasting drug expenditures is predicting the price inflation of drugs. 2. Increasing health insurance through managed care organizations has decreased the utilization of prescription drugs. 3. The pharmaceutical industry is the most profitable industry. Answers: 1. F; 2. F; 3. T.