Healthy Skepticism Library item: 20320

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Publication type: Journal Article

Hammond JS, Keeney RL, Raiffa H.
The hidden traps in decision making.
Clin Lab Manage Rev 1999; 13:(1):39-47
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/10351198

Abstract:

Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made—the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighed. But sometimes the fault lies not in the decision-making process but rather in the mind of the decision maker. The way the human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. Eight psychological traps that are particularly likely to affect the way we make business decisions are examined. The anchoring trap leads us to give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. The status-quo trap biases us toward maintaining the current situation—even when better alternatives exist. The sunk-cost trap inclines us to perpetuate the mistakes of the past. The confirming-evidence trap leads us to seek out information supporting an existing predilection and to discount opposing information. The framing trap occurs when we misstate a problem, undermining the entire decision-making process. The overconfidence trap makes us over-estimate the accuracy of our forecasts. The prudence trap leads us to be overcautious when we make estimates about uncertain events. And the recallability trap leads us to give undue weight to recent, dramatic events. The best way to avoid all the traps is awareness—forewarned is forearmed. The authors show how to take action to ensure that important business decisions are sound and reliable.

Keywords:
Administrative Personnel/psychology* Administrative Personnel/standards Decision Making, Organizational* Humans Planning Techniques United States