Healthy Skepticism Library item: 20288

Warning: This library includes all items relevant to health product marketing that we are aware of regardless of quality. Often we do not agree with all or part of the contents.

Publication type: Journal Article

Morton V, Torgerson DJ
Effect of regression to the mean on decision making in health care
BMJ 2003 May 17; 326:(7398):1083–1084
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1125994/

Abstract:

Knowledge of regression to the mean can help with everything from interpreting test results to improving your career prospects. All healthcare professionals should be aware of its implications

Regression to the mean is a widespread statistical phenomenon with potentially serious implications for health care. It can result in wrongly concluding that an effect is due to treatment when it is due to chance. Ignorance of the problem will lead to errors in decision making. We discuss the importance of the issue and its effects on many common clinical, public health, and managerial decisions.