Healthy Skepticism Library item: 19038

Warning: This library includes all items relevant to health product marketing that we are aware of regardless of quality. Often we do not agree with all or part of the contents.

Publication type: Journal Article

Welch HG, Schwartz LM, Woloshin S.
Ramifications of screening for breast cancer: 1 in 4 cancers detected by mammography are pseudocancers.
BMJ 2006 March 23; 332:(7543):727
http://www.bmj.com/content/332/7543/727.1.long

Abstract:

EDITOR—In this issue Zackrisson et al report on follow-up data from the Malmö mammographic screening trial and conclude that the rate of overdiagnosis of breast cancer was 10%. 1 They do not, however, calculate the risk we believe is most relevant to women considering mammography: What is the chance that a screen detected cancer represents overdiagnosis?

After 15 years of follow-up, there were 1320 diagnosed in the screened …