Healthy Skepticism Library item: 11960

Warning: This library includes all items relevant to health product marketing that we are aware of regardless of quality. Often we do not agree with all or part of the contents.

Publication type: news

Perrone M.
Firm: US Drug Sales Will Fall 17 Percent
Associated Press 2007 Nov 1
http://www.turks.us/article.php?story=Study-USDrugSalesToFall17Percent

Full text:

WASHINGTON – Pharmaceutical sales in the U.S. will drop to a third of global sales in 2008, from a 50 percent share two years ago, a report released Thursday says.

Prescription drugs sales in emerging economies in China, Brazil, Turkey, Mexico and elsewhere are booming but the gains will be offset by the loss of patent protection for profitable drugs worth $20 billion in annual sales in 2008, predicts health care research firm IMS Health.

Expected global sales growth of 5 percent to 6 percent, worth between $735 billion to $745 billion, in 2008 compares with 6 percent to 7 percent growth in 2006 that netted between $695 billion to $705 billion.

In the U.S., prescription drug sales growth of 4 percent to 5 percent, or $295 billion to $305 billion, is forecast by IMS Health.

U.S. patents for Johnson & Johnson’s schizophrenia treatment Risperdal and Merck & Co. Inc.‘s osteoporosis medicine Fosamax will likely expire, helping drive global sales growth in generic drugs of 15 percent to $70 billion.

IMS expects 29 new drugs to launch next year, but most of them will target less common diseases, not offsetting lost sales of drugs like Merck’s Zocor, a widely used cholesterol-lowering drug that lost patent protection this year.

Generic manufacturers like Mylan Inc. and Barr Pharmaceuticals Inc. will continue to make inroads in emerging markets. IMS estimates prescription drug sales in China, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and other emerging economies will account for 25 percent of the global market in 2008, although economic growth in the developing world won’t benefit brand-name manufacturers as much until those countries can afford more expensive, innovative medicines.

The IMS report of slowing sales growth comes as U.S. federal regulators have stepped up scrutiny of pharmaceuticals and grown more cautious about new drug approvals, especially in the aftermath of pulling a widely sold arthritis drug because of safety concerns.

In 2007, the Food and Drug Administration has slapped new warnings on drugs from GlaxoSmithKline plc, Amgen Inc. and Eli Lilly and Co. and rejected highly anticipated products from Sanofi-Aventis and others.

While drug makers say recently passed laws giving FDA additional powers to regulate drugs may ease the agency’s defensive stance, IMS foresees more warning labels and slower approvals.

“What we see is more information on drug usage becoming available and being mined to find risks and safety issues,” said Murray Aitken, a senior vice president with IMS Health. “Overall this means more uncertainty for companies, as well as for their ability to get products to patients.”